Skip to Main Content
It looks like you're using Internet Explorer 11 or older. This website works best with modern browsers such as the latest versions of Chrome, Firefox, Safari, and Edge. If you continue with this browser, you may see unexpected results.

library logo banner
*Some Resources May Require TRADOC HQ SharePoint Access. Contact your librarian for help* These resources are intended as overviews of relevant discussion and do not represent endorsement by TRADOC.

TRADOC HQ Library

Home Page

Emerging Future Warfare Topics

-- Implications of Emerging Technology on Military Human Performance research priorities.
-- New Revolution in Military Affairs - War's Sci-Fi Future. Brose, Christian. Foreign Affairs. Vol. 98, Iss. 3, (May/Jun 2019): 122-128,130-134. Abstract: There is an emerging consensus that the United States' top defense-planning priority should be contending with great powers with advanced militaries, primarily China, and that new technologies, once intriguing but speculative, are now both real and essential to future military advantage. Senior military leaders and defense experts are also starting to agree, albeit belatedly, that when it comes to these threats, the United States is falling dangerously behind. This reality demands more than a revolution in technology; it requires a revolution in thinking. And that thinking must focus more on how the U.S. military fights than with what it fights. The problem is not insufficient spending on defense; it is that the U.S. military is being countered by rivals with superior strategies. The United States, in other words, is playing a losing game. The question, accordingly, is not how new technologies can improve the U.S. military's ability to do what it already does but how they can enable it to operate in new ways. If American defense officials do not answer that question, there will still be a revolution in military affairs. But it will primarily benefit others.
-- Future of Warfare: Views from 10 Notable Experts
-- Future Warfare-Weaponizing Critical Infrastructure
-- Forecasting change in military technology, 2020-2040. Michael E. O’Hanlon (September 2018) Executive Summary: What changes are likely in military technology over the next 20 years? This question is fascinating on its own terms. More importantly, answering it is crucial for making appropriate changes in U.S. and allied weaponry, military operations, wartime preparations, and defense budget priorities. To be sure, technology is advancing fast in many realms. But it is not enough to wave one’s arms exuberantly about futuristic military possibilities.
-- Warfare - 2050
-- Exponential technology Codex 2020 To 2070 Unlimited Thinking. Exponential Potential By Matthew Griffin (311 Institute)
-- Intellectual Edge-A Competitive Advantage for Future War and Strategic Competition
-- Wars of 21st Century and the Future of Operational Art and Design. Abul Hasnat Mohammad Mahmud Azam. Army Journal, 65th Issue, June 2019. Abstract: The Fourth Industrial Revolution is going to fundamentally alter the way we live, work, and relate to one another. In its scale, scope, and complexity, the transformation will be unlike anything humankind has experienced before. In the midst of these significant changes, the environment of conflict, the nature of warfighting and even the character of warriors are also transforming from sole conventional state-based mode to multiple modes of war. Unlike the past wars, the future conflict will be multi-modal, multi-variant rather than a simple black or white characterization of one form of warfare. Lines between different modes of war will be increasingly blurred.
-- Diffusion of Military Technology, Jon Schmid (2018) Defence and Peace Economics, 29:6, 595-613. Abstract: The impact of national defense research and development spending on overall innovation depends on the extent to which the knowledge and technologies generated by defense funding diffuse. This article uses an original data-set of patents assigned to defense-servicing organizations to investigate the diffusion of military technologies. The Diffusion of Military Technology
-- Toward Universal Laws of Technology Evolution: Modeling Multi-Century Advances in Mobile Direct-Fire Systems. Alexander Kott, U.S. Army CCDC Army Research Laboratory. Abstract: This regularity is suitable for technology forecasting, as this paper illustrates with explorations of two systems that might appear 30 years in the future from this writing: a heavy infantryman and a tank. In both cases, the regularity helped lead to nonobvious conclusions, particularly regarding the power of the weapons of such future systems. This paper explores the question of whether a single regularity of technological growth might apply to a broad range of technologies, over a period of multiple centuries. To this end, the paper investigates a collection of diverse weapon systems called here the mobile direct-fire systems. Toward Universal Laws of Technology Evolution - Kott
-- What’s Next for Aerospace and Defense: A Vision for 2050 (2019) Abstract: It’s impossible to perfectly predict the next 30 years, but these experts have painted a remarkable picture of the potential of 2050. Drones will deliver packages across the country. Artificial Intelligence will be widespread. Air Taxis will be a part of everyday commutes. Supersonic flight will get passengers around the world in half the time. There’s even the potential to tour the stars aboard a commercial spacecraft. But for the A&D industry to make this optimistic vision a reality, company leaders and players across the value chain will need to take actions that enable progress, some more complex than others. These choices today will affect both the size of the opportunity and how quickly a technology might be widely adopted. https://www.aia-aerospace.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Whats-Next-for-Aerospace-and-Defense.pdf
--The Kill Chain: How Emerging Technologies Threaten America's Military Dominance (2020) - Christian Brose – RBDigital eBook & eAudiobook & Print Copy
--The New Rules of War: Victory In The Age Of Durable Disorder eAudiobook & eBook & Print Copy
--The future of land warfare By O'Hanlon, Michael E. 2015., Brookings Institution Press *Print Copy Only 
--Healing the wounded giant : maintaining military preeminence while cutting the defense budget By O'Hanlon, Michael E 2013., Brookings Institution Press Ebook Central https://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/tradoc-ebooks/detail.action?docID=1186369
--2030 : how today's biggest trends will collide and reshape the future of everything – RBDigital eAudio & eBook
--Frictionless: Why The Future Of Everything Will Be Fast, Fluid, And Made Just For You  eAudiobook & eBook
-- Weaponization of Quantum Mechanics: Quantum Technology in Future Warfare. 23 May 2019. US Army School of Advanced Military Studies Berendsen,Rene G. Abstract: Quantum technology is an emerging technology that has the potential to reshape the world and provoke a new arms race. Given that we are in the early stages of quantum technology and there exists the potential of this technology providing the United States and her allies an advantage over adversaries, this monograph analyzes quantum technology and examines its potential importance in future warfare.
-- Quantum technology hype and national security.
-- Demystifying the Quantum Threat Infrastructure Institutions and Intelligence Advantage. Jon R. Lindsay. Security Studies vol 29 Issue 2 (2020) 335-361. Abstract: In theory, a fully functional quantum computer could break the cryptographic protocols that underwrite cybersecurity everywhere, which would be disastrous for national security, global trade, and civil society. Quantum cryptography, conversely, promises an unprecedented level of security, yet this benefit comes with some danger: revisionist actors with impenetrable communications might be able to conduct surprise attacks and covert conspiracies. In reality, neither of these threat scenarios are likely. Intelligence advantage in political competition depends on the interaction of technological infrastructure with organizational institutions. Robust cryptosystems can be undermined by poor organizational coordination, and careful security policy can compensate for technical vulnerabilities.
-- Artificial Intelligence Arms Race: Trends and World Leaders in Autonomous Weapons Development.
-- Future of Military Applications of Artificial Intelligence: A Role for Confidence-Building Measures?
-- Impact of Artificial Intelligence on hybrid warfare. Guilong Yan (2020). Small Wars & Insurgencies, 31:4, 898-917. Abstract: Through a brief survey of the typical definitions of hybrid warfare (HW), this article illustrates the five salient features of HW: synergy, ambiguity, asymmetry, innovative disruption and battle over psychology; then based on a HW model proposed by Erik Reichborn-Kjennerud and Patrick Cullen, the article discusses the impact of Artificial Intelligence on the five instruments of power – military, political, economic, civil and informational (MPECI), and analyses the changes and continuities of HW in the age of Artificial Intelligence.
-- Operationalizing Artificial Intelligence for Algorithmic Warfare. Courtney Crosby, PhD. Military Review (July-August 2020). Abstract: Operationalizing AI is an inherently mission-centric endeavor that must make sense tactically for there to be any strategic impact. Until there is tangible return on investment for units on the ground, widespread hesitation around the value of algorithmic warfare will persist; as a result, adversarial overmatch will become an increasingly unwinnable reality. The DOD cannot continue to execute AI programs without a framework for operationalizing those programs. The architecture presented in this article does just that by accelerating and standardizing the government’s efforts to develop AI capabilities through highly inventive, operationally appealing technology.
-- Towards the Third Revolution in Military Affairs-The Russian Military’s Use of AI-Enabled Cyber Warfare
-- Artificial Intelligence Drone Swarming and Escalation Risks in Future Warfare.  James Johnson (2020). The RUSI Journal, 165:2, 26-36. Abstract: The rapid proliferation of a new generation of artificial intelligence (AI)-augmented and –enabled autonomous weapon systems (AWS), most notably drones used in swarming tactics, could have a significant impact on deterrence, nuclear security, escalation and strategic stability in future warfare. James Johnson argues that emerging iterations of AWS fused with AI systems will presage a powerful interplay of increased range, accuracy, mass, coordination, intelligence and speed in a future conflict. In turn, the risk of escalatory use-them-or-lose-them situations between nuclear-armed military powers and the attendant dangers posed by the use of unreliable, unverified and unsafe AWS will increase, with potentially catastrophic strategic outcomes.

-- Role Of Artificial Intelligence In Facilitating Military Innovation

-- Applying Control Abstraction to the Design of Human–Agent Teams
-- BUILDING TRUST IN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE. Francesca Rossi, Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 72, No. 1. Abstract: It is easy to see that AI will become pervasive in our everyday life. This will certainly bring many benefits in terms of scientific progress, human wellbeing, economic value, and the possibility of exploring solutions to major social and environmental problems. However, such a powerful technology also raises some concerns, such as its ability to make important decisions in a way that humans would perceive as fair, to be aware and aligned to human values that are relevant to the problems being tackled, and the capability to explain its reasoning and decision-making. Since many successful AI techniques rely on huge amounts of data, it is important to know how data are handled by AI systems and by those who produce them.
-- Building trust over intelligence for autonomous systems. Marwa Brichni, Said el Gattoufi, Journal of Information Assurance and Security 15 (2020). Abstract: Trust building follows a dynamic process from initial trust defined by the propensity to trust in automation to trust development which is dependent on the trustworthiness of automation. Based on prior studies, many factors intervene in propensity formation and trustworthiness constitution, nevertheless their influence on trust is not detailed enough to order them according to their standing. In this survey, we highlight the importance of intelligence among the factors influencing trust and we suggest an uncertainty derived approach to build trust.
-- Designing AI Systems With Human-Machine Teams
-- Explainable Artificial Intelligence for 6G-Improving Trust between Human and Machine
-- Future of Military Applications of Artificial Intelligence: A Role for Confidence-Building Measures? Michael C.Horowitz, Lauren Kahn, Casey Mahoney. Orbis Volume 64, Issue 4, 2020, Pages 528-543. Abstract: Argues that pursuing confidence-building measures (CBMs), a class of information-sharing and transparency-enhancing arrangements that states began using in the Cold War to enhance strategic stability, could offer one model of managing AI-related risk today. This article uses historical analogies to illustrate how, in the absence of combat experiences involving novel military technology, it is difficult for states to be certain how these innovations change the implicit rules of warfare. Pursuing international dialogue, in ways that borrow from the Cold War CBM toolkit, may help speed the learning process about the implications of military applications of AI in ways that reduce the risk that states’ uncertainty about changes in military technology undermine international security and stability.
-- Artificial intelligence future warfare implications for international security. James Johnson (2019) Defense & Security Analysis, 35:2, 147-169. Abstract: Recent developments in artificial intelligence (AI) suggest that this emerging technology will have a deterministic and potentially transformative influence on military power, strategic competition, and world politics more broadly. After the initial surge of broad speculation in the literature related to AI this article provides some much needed specificity to the debate. It argues that left unchecked the uncertainties and vulnerabilities created by the rapid proliferation and diffusion of AI could become a major potential source of instability and great power strategic rivalry. The article identifies several AI-related innovations and technological developments that will likely have genuine consequences for military applications from a tactical battlefield perspective to the strategic level.
-- Artificial Intelligence-A Threat to Strategic Stability.  James S. Johnson. Strategic Studies Quarterly, Spring 2020. Abstract: AI-augmented conventional capabilities might affect strategic stability between great military powers. The nuanced, multifaceted possible intersections of this emerging technology with a range of advanced conventional weapons can compromise nuclear capabilities, thus amplifying the potentially destabilizing effects of these weapons. This article argues that a new generation of artificial intelligence–enhanced conventional capabilities will exacerbate the risk of inadvertent escalation caused by the commingling of nuclear and nonnuclear weapons. The increasing speed of warfare will also undermine strategic stability and increase the risk of nuclear confrontation.
-- Killing Me Softly-Competition in Artificial Intelligence and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles. Norine MacDonald and George Howell. PRISM 8, NO. 3. Abstract: This study of the current range of UAVs, and the ways in which AI can enhance them, offers a specific consideration of the metamorphosis of the battlespace—what one can expect competitors to field, and what sort of response will be required. We do not reference the creation of a general AI but the extensive, consolidated use of narrow AI to integrate, process, and sort the vast amounts of accumulated and incoming data at all levels of the military enterprise. Unmanned systems must be empowered with AI capability to enable swarming, teaming, and sensor interpretation. There must be both reimagining of the conduct of warfare and adding new methodologies for managing and developing these breakthroughs. Both an AI core and AI “nervous system” are needed, with an accompanying integration of systems and networking capacity.
-- Quantum Artificial Intelligence: A “precautionary” U.S. approach? Richard D. Taylor. Telecommunications Policy 44 (2020). Abstract: It presents a non-technical introduction to the concept of quantum mechanics in general, to the unique characteristics of sub-atomic particles, to quantum applications, and to QC and QAI in particular. The development of fully functioning quantum information technologies is in its early stages, but is being pursued aggressively. One of the most salient of these is Quantum Artificial Intelligence (QAI) – a fusion of QC and AI – which some see as potentially threatening. The article notes some of the challenges to development of quantum-based information technologies and considers the scope of global competition to the U.S. in this field, especially from China.
-- Engineering Human–Machine Teams for Trusted Collaboration
-- How Can Physiological Computing Benefit Human-Robot Interaction
-- Applying Control Abstraction to the Design of Human–Agent Teams
-- Artificial Intelligence and the Future of War. Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies, 2(1), pp. 55–60. Abstract: This article discusses whether the arrival of Artificial Intelligence will fundamentally change the character of war. It argues that until such time as machines gain self-consciousness will continue to be what Thucydides called ‘the human thing’.
-- Life 3.0: Being Human In The Age Of Artificial Intelligence eBook & eAudiobook
-- 2084: Audio Lectures on Artificial Intelligence And The Future Of Humanity eAudiobook

Climate Change & National Security Topics

Mad Scientist virtual event - "Climate Change - Threats, Resilience, and Adaptation" - on Tuesday, 13 April 2021 (1430-1600 EDT).

"The Climate Crisis is a National Security Threat" October 7, 2020 Wilson Center (YouTube)

Geoengineering Is Coming, Whether It’s Governed or Not March 22, 2021 CFR

Analyzing the Climate Security Threat: Key Actions for the U.S. Intelligence Community Jan 22, 2021 War on the Rocks

The Climate Briefing: Climate Change and National Security Apr 29, 2020 Chatham House Podcast

National Security Significance of a Changing Climate: Risk and Resilience in the 21st Century January 08, 2021 US Naval War College (YouTube)

Climate – Military Impact -- Clean Power From the Pentagon: The Department of Defense's research and innovation system is especially well-suited to advancing clean energy technologies in both the military and civilian sector. Issues in Science and Technology. Summer, 2019, Vol. 35 Issue 4, p63, 6 p. Description:       The Department of Defense (DOD) in 2019 will invest $1.6 billion in research, development, test and evaluation (RDT&E) that is directly related to energy. The magnitude of the investment reflects [...]

Climate – Military Impact -- Hidden carbon costs of the everywhere war Logistics geopolitical ecology and the carbon boot‐print of the US military. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers. Mar2020, Vol. 45 Issue 1, p65-80. 16p. Abstract: This paper examines the US military's impact on climate by analysing the geopolitical ecology of its global logistical supply chains. Our geopolitical ecology framework interrogates the material‐ecological metabolic flows (hydrocarbon‐based fuels, water, sand, concrete) that shape geopolitical and geoeconomic power relations. We argue that to account for the US military as a major climate actor, one must understand the logistical supply chain that makes its acquisition and consumption of hydrocarbon‐based fuels possible. Our paper focuses on the US Defense Logistics Agency – Energy (DLA‐E), a large yet virtually unresearched sub‐agency within the US Department of Defense. The DLA‐E is the primary purchase‐point for hydrocarbon‐based fuels for the US military, as well as a powerful actor in the global oil market. After outlining our geopolitical ecology approach, we detail the scope of the DLA‐E's operations, its supply chain, bureaucratic practices, and the physical infrastructure that facilitates the US military's consumption of hydro‐based carbons on a global scale. We show several "path dependencies" – warfighting paradigms, weapons systems, bureaucratic requirements, and waste – that are put in place by military supply chains and undergird a heavy reliance on carbon‐based fuels by the US military for years to come. The paper, based on comprehensive records of bulk fuel purchases we have gathered from DLA‐E through Freedom of Information Act requests, represents a partial yet robust picture of the geopolitical ecology of American imperialism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate – Military -- Climate Change and Hybrid Warfare Strategies. Journal of Strategic Security. 2020, Vol. 13 Issue 4, preceding p45-57. 14p. Abstract:  Concepts of hybrid warfare and climate security are contested on their own, and are rarely considered as connected in planning for future security risks. Yet climate change presents new hazards for national security, and opportunities for those looking to foment instability and uncertainty in traditional institutions. This article examines the connections between climate change risks and hybrid war strategies, and focuses on concepts of resilience targeting, information warfare, and geoengineering, illustrating that 'full spectrum' analyses of security are necessary in developing future security strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate – Military -- Climate Change and the Politics of Military Bases. Global Environmental Politics. Feb2018, Vol. 18 Issue 1, p33-51. 19p. 1 Diagram, 1 Chart, 1 Map. Abstract: How does climate change affect the politics of military bases? The United States alone has hundreds of overseas bases that require continuous coordination with host governments. I argue that climate change can create knock-on environmental problems associated with a base’s infrastructure or waste. Those knock-on problems create a mix of subnational, international, and transnational political contestation that raises the political costs of overseas bases and could even rupture an international relationship. I probe the plausibility of the theoretical framework using new evidence from Greenland. Between 1953 and 1967, the US Army maintained secret bases in Greenland as precursors for a nuclear ballistic missile complex. The bases were eventually abandoned, leaving considerable waste behind. Climate change is now poised to remobilize these pollutants into the surface water, creating a risk for human settlements. The case could be the proverbial canary in the coal mine for future politics surrounding overseas military bases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate – Military -- Climate Change Hits Home: Assessment Tool Helps Gauge The Way Forward. Army Magazine. Nov2020, Vol. 70 Issue 11, p1-7. 7p. Abstract: The article reports that the U.S. Army has plans to deploy a web-based climate assessment tool to Directorate of Public Works staff at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, and Directorate of Public Works staff at Fort Hood, Texas, in 2021. Topics include that the web-based climate assessment tool will help installation leaders and personnel to prepare for climate resilience.

Climate – Military -- National Security Impacts of Climate Change. Journal of National Security Law & Policy. 2019, Vol. 10 Issue 1, p27-43. 17p. This issue brief covers the ways the U.S. military defines climate change risks and the subsequent challenges DoD will likely face going forward. It also explores specific examples of global and domestic impacts and consequences. In addition, it provides a high-level accounting of DoD and Congressional actions on climate and security.

Climate – Military -- Sustainability Issues In The Military Genesis And Prospects. Journal of Security & Sustainability Issues. Sep2018, Vol. 8 Issue 1, p19-32. 14p. Despite the rising recognition and a growing body of literature on sustainability issues in the military, no comprehensive and systematic review on the topic has been published yet. Accordingly, the aim of this paper was to deconstruct the topic of sustainability in the military context by exploring its genesis, state-of-the-art knowledge and future prospects. Furthermore, the study addressed the question of practical importance about where sustainability in the military is ad hoc or institutionalized into management processes and procedures of organizations. The paper relied on the systematic literature review and used a bibliometric data analysis: citation network and keyword network analysis techniques were employed to select, analyse and interpret the genesis and prospects in the field. The data suggest there are three dominating research streams in the field: (1) environmentally sustainable solutions, (2) economic (un) sustainability of militarization and (3) social cohesion. The recent research on sustainability in the military marks a new trend where all three fields of sustainability are being integrated. It is also apparent form the analysis that a small but significant share of publications indicates institutionalization of sustainability in the military practice. This is particularly evident in relation to environmental issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate – Military -- US Government's Approach to Environmental Security Focus on Campaign Activities. JFQ: Joint Force Quarterly. 2018 2nd Quarter, Issue 89, p130-140. 11p. Abstract: The article reports on the U.S. Government’s approach to environmental security to address threats from pollution, contamination, natural resource depletion, or climate change, etc., with a focus on campaign activities of combatant commander. It is said that population movements can generate the need for external intervention.

Climate – Military -- US Military's Environmental Protection Efforts: Unexpected Ecofriendly Solutions to Land Management Problems. Boston College Law Review; Mar2019, Vol. 60 Issue 3, p1023-1072, 50p. Abstract: The military's historically destructive relationship with the environment and its several national security exemptions from compliance with federal environmental laws would appear to indicate that the military's mission is inherently at odds with environmental protection. Nevertheless, the U.S. Department of Defense ("DoD") has recently demonstrated a significant interest in ensuring military readiness by reducing potential impediments to normal military operations on DoD installations. Often cumulatively referred to as "encroachment," these outside pressures include land-use restrictions from federal environmental laws as well as more direct interference from nearby civilian populations, such as noise complaints and light pollution. By pursuing initiatives that reduce encroachment issues on military bases, the DoD has developed several adaptive solutions to its land management challenges--to wit: compatible-use buffering programs that create space between military lands and nearby civilian populations, cooperative partnerships with interested stakeholders outside military bases, and various Service-specific conservation policies. These efforts seek to produce the "win-win" outcome of responsibly managing natural resources on and surrounding DoD lands while simultaneously protecting national security through increased military training capabilities and decreased geopolitical instability (a consequence of climate change). This Note seeks to fill a gap in the literature by arguing that Congress and the public should encourage the military's successful land management efforts by substantially increasing the employment of land buffering programs and collaborative partnerships near military bases, as authorized by the Sikes Act of 1960 and 10 U.S.C. § 2684(a). This Note further argues that other government agencies with land management responsibilities should apply the DoD's lessons to develop policies that effectively balance mission requirements with environmental interests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate Change – Politics -- Climate Change and Global Security. Journal of Strategic Security. 2020, Vol. 13 Issue 4, pi-iv. 5p. Climate security may be an unfamiliar concept for many security practitioners—especially those involved in law enforcement and criminal intelligence—since it is an emerging and evolving threat. Beyond that, climate security can be seen to have three—at least—general facets: environmental security, human security, and geopolitical security.3 Add to these biosecurity and criminal aspects which bridge the confluence between the three general facets and the nexus between climate-conflict and conflict and crime become realistic potentials. Consider the example of the COVID-19 pandemic where a range of criminal groups—gangs, cartels, mafias (aka, Criminal Armed Groups or CAGs)—exploited the gaps in response and state weakness in the contested pandemic space to exert criminal governance over areas as disparate as Brazil’s favelas, El Salvador and South Africa’s gang fiefdoms, Colombia’s rebel-ruled zones, and Italy’s mafia-exploited urban centers.

Environment – Energy Security -- US energy climate and nuclear power policy in the 21st century: The primacy of national security. The Electricity Journal. Volume 33, Issue 1, January–February 2020. Abstract: This paper analyzes global and regional energy and CO2 trends and concludes: 1) Domestic U.S. policies alone will not insulate the U.S. from the impacts of climate change; 2) The U.S. should triage climate change as a global threat by focusing on regions where CO2 emissions are most acute; and 3) The U.S. civilian nuclear enterprise should be elevated in U.S. energy and climate policy in order to meet global climate and national security objectives.

Environment – Geoengineering -- A New Security Framework for Geoengineering. Strategic Studies Quarterly. Summer2018, Vol. 12 Issue 2, p82-106. 25p. Abstract: As the national security ramifications of climate change grow more pronounced, climate manipulation technologies, called geoengineering, will become more attractive as a method of staving off climate-related security emergencies. Geoengineering includes methods of carbon dioxide removal and/or solar radiation management and can theoretically achieve significant reductions in warming-related environmental changes, but they are scientifically untested. Geoengineering technologies have the potential to disrupt the global ecological status quo and mount a potentially coercive threat with implications as serious as those in wartime. Several of these technologies can be deployed from the global commons, but international law provides no more than indirect guidance as to how they should be governed as a matter of international security. We argue that, lacking explicit scientific or legal guidance, just war theory provides a useful normative framework for restraining the use of environmental force. Modifying just war theory into "just geoengineering theory" will provide ethical standards for security decision makers as they consider whether or how geoengineering should be used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environment - Health – Social -- Climate Change Human Health and Social Stability - Addressing Interlinkages.  Environmental Health Perspectives. Apr2019, Vol. 127 Issue 4, p1-10. 10p. 1 Diagram, 3 Charts. Abstract: BACKGROUND: Abundant historical evidence demonstrates how environmental changes can affect social stability and, in turn, human health. A rapidly growing body of literature, largely from political science and economics, is examining the potential for and consequences associated with social instability related to current climate change. However, comparatively little of this research incorporates the effects on human health or the role of health systems in influencing the magnitude and types of instability that could occur. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this commentary is to articulate a conceptual framework incorporating health outcomes and health systems into theorized and observed linkages between climate change and social instability, illustrating in particular the health effects of natural resource shortages, infectious disease outbreaks, and migration. DISCUSSION: Although increasing evidence exists that climate change, health, and social instability are related, key questions remain about the pathways linking these factors, as well as the magnitude, causality, and directionality of relationships across spatial and temporal scales. Models seeking to explain and predict climate-related social unrest should incorporate the many linkages between climate change, human health, and social instability. Members of the environmental health research community should work closely with those in the political science and economics communities to help deepen understandings of climate-related stressors and shocks that affect instability and worsen health outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environment – Politics -- Can NATO evolve into a climate alliance treaty organization in the Middle East? Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Mar2020, Vol. 76 Issue 2, p97-101. 5p. Abstract: NATO's current security doctrine needs to change. It needs to enhance its political will and institutional capacity to manage climate change threats, both within the alliance itself and within the area most vulnerable to its southern flank: the Middle East. NATO will need to evolve into a CATO, a "Climate Alliance Treaty Organization," that deals with the security implications of potential tipping points and develops policies in response. A case study as to how NATO can assume this role can be seen in how the organization dealt with environmental issues in Iraq, in the aftermath of war with the Islamic State. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environment – Politics -- Climate Change And International Relations: A Five-Pronged Research Agenda. Journal of International Affairs. 2019/2020, Vol. 73 Issue 1, p183-193. 11p. Abstract:               Political leaders describe the climate crisis as the greatest challenge of our time, but it plays only a marginal role in the foreign policy of most states and in the scholarly literature on international relations. Only 0.77 percent of the articles in five top international relations (IR) journals between 2015 and 2019 were about climate change. This is a problem, for when the full impact of climate change and policy responses to climate change is felt, it will redefine international politics. We suggest five broad areas where it is necessary to better understand how climate change will reshape world politics: sovereignty, security, status and reputation, norms and coalitions, and the geopolitics of energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environment – Politics -- Discourses of Resilience in the Climate Security Debate. Global Environmental Politics. May2019, Vol. 19 Issue 2, p104-126. 23p. 2 Charts. Abstract:         The language of "resilience" features prominently in contemporary climate security debates. While a basic definition of resilience is the capacity of a system to absorb recurrent disturbances so as to retain its essential structures, processes, and feedbacks, I argue that resilience is currently articulated in four distinct ways in climate security discourse. These are strategic resilience, neoliberal resilience, social resilience, and ecological resilience. Most analyses of resilience-based security discourses have hitherto been informed by Foucauldian notions of governing populations at a distance to ensure compliance with neoliberal norms. However, in the climate security field, neoliberal resilience discourses have achieved relatively little salience, while Foucauldian accounts are largely overdetermined, thus obscuring the multiple ways in which resilience is currently articulated. In this article, I identify these disparate resilience discourses through an analysis of recent US and UK government, international organization, nongovernmental organization, and academic climate security literature. I then analyze these discourses in terms of their basic discursive structure and degree of institutionalization to clarify how dominant climate security narratives construct understandings of security and insecurity in contemporary global environmental politics. While strategic articulations are currently most conspicuous, I argue that only social and ecological resilience support long-term human flourishing and ecosystem integrity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environment – Politics – Law -- Preventing a Warming War Protection of the Environment and Reducing Climate Conflict Risk as a Challenge of International Law. Goettingen Journal of International Law; 2020, Vol. 10 Issue 1, p307-343, 37p Abstract: Global warming poses serious risks to the environment, communities, and international peace and security. Significant concerns have been raised that, in the case of climate policy failures, the world may enter a Warming War, threatening the future viability of the planet and its life-sustaining ecosystems. While the regime of treaties and agreements governing climate change acknowledges the science and threats posed by global warming, it is not well positioned to constrain the securitization of climate change. A function of international law is to prevent armed conflict by resolving disputes through the judicial application of principles and norms governing relations between States. However, to date, it has been ineffective in addressing the impacts of climate change on armed conflict, because the treaties applicable to climate change fail to provide preventative, enforcement, and dispute resolution mechanisms. It is time for international law to establish judicial bodies with jurisdiction for conflict resolution and response capacities in the pre-phase to a Warming War. The challenge is to develop soft security measures to avoid climate conflict risks turning violent and becoming a hard security issue, attracting the use of force by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). The establishment of an International Court for the Environment (ICE) is proposed as an entity that could enforce legally binding norms and resolve climate-induced disputes, opening an avenue for stakeholders to bring climate loss and damage cases to court. Aside from the reduction of greenhouse gases (GHG) to limit global warming, and the establishment of new legal regimes, alternative actions can be undertaken to protect the environment and communities, by mitigating climate-related risks. There is growing discourse surrounding climate change as a threat multiplier, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities. In the pre-phase to conflict, there is an urgent need to identify these vulnerabilities and their levels of influence on the compound effects of climate and conflict risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environment -- Revisiting the climate collapse - The view from Nuuk in the year 2070. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Nov2019, Vol. 75 Issue 6, p280-285. 6p. Abstract: Planetary warming is one of several existential threats to human civilization. We are now in the climate end-game, facing a choice between dramatic action or a world plunged into outright chaos. The consequences of a failure to respond appropriately to the risks are explored in a scenario that illustrates the impacts of poorly-mitigated fossil fuel use over the next 50 years, including massive disruption of human societies, and identifies the main causes of the epochal failure of governments to protect the people and their future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environment - Social -- Climate Change and Urbanization Challenges to Global Security and Stability. Source:              JFQ: Joint Force Quarterly. 2018 2nd Quarter, Issue 89, p93-98. 6p. Abstract:              The article discusses how rapid urbanization and climate change are bringing new challenges for civil-military coordination in humanitarian crises. Both urbanization and climate change intensify the risk for crises and makes responses remarkably more complicated. The humanitarian community has their impact on coordination and considering more resilient approaches to crisis preparedness.

Environment - Social -- Human mobility and environmental change a survey of perceptions and policy direction. Population & Environment; Mar2019, Vol. 40 Issue 3, p239-256, 18p, 2 Charts, 3 Graphs. Environmental protection; Climate change; Social mobility; Emigration & immigration; Sustainable development Abstract: Research concerning human mobility in the context of environmental change is primarily focused on analyses of the nexus itself. We have taken a less-travelled route, focusing on those who take an interest in the issue, engage with it professionally or seek to address the multitude of social, economic and political dimensions associated with it. We used an online survey to examine perceptions of the human mobility/environmental change nexus amongst those who work with or within it (n = 262 respondents), situating our findings within the policy development they often seek or help to propel. We outline respondents' overall characteristics, their conceptualisation of the human mobility/environmental change nexus and, finally, their policy preferences or priorities. We find, overall, that respondents are concerned with mobility approaches that promote equity as well as economic opportunity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environment -- Turning Down the Heat. Government Technology. Jun2018, Vol. 31 Issue 4, p46-49. 4p. Abstract: Topics include the growing threats of hantavirus in Connecticut due to the changing temperature of the planet due to climate change, the use of performance management software by the governance of San Rafael, California to control and monitor wildfires in the state due to increasing temperatures, and tools developed by scientists from the Climate Central and the Army Corps of Engineers to monitor sea level in U.S. coasts.

Environment – Water Scarcity -- Climate Change Water Scarcity and the Potential for Interstate Conflict in South Asia.               Journal of Strategic Security. 2020, Vol. 13 Issue 4, preceding p109-122. 15p. Abstract: Ever since American security analysts began to consider the impact of global warming on international security, water has been viewed as an especially critical factor. In many parts of the developing world, water supplies are already insufficient to meet societal requirements, and, by shrinking these supplies further, climate change will cause widespread hardship, unrest, and conflict. But exactly what role water plays in this equation has been the subject of considerable reassessment over time. When analysts first examined warming's impacts, they largely assumed that climate-related water scarcities would most likely provoke conflict within nations; only later did analysts look closely at the possibility of conflicts arising between states, typically in the context of shared river systems. This risk appears particularly acute in South Asia, where several highly-populated countries, including China, India, and Pakistan, rely on river systems which depend for part of their flow on meltwater from the Himalayan glaciers, which are contracting as a result of climate change. In the absence of greater efforts by these countries to address this peril in a collaborative, equitable manner, looming water shortages could combine with other antagonisms to trigger armed conflict, possibly entailing the use of nuclear weapons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geographic - Arctic -- Human Security in the Arctic Implications for the United States Army. Parameters: U.S. Army War College. Spring/Summer2019, Vol. 49 Issue 1/2, p37-50. 14p.  This article explains the growing importance of Arctic security issues to Army strategic planning. While the effects of climate change will complicate the Army's ability to protect the nation, they will also increase the challenge of securing the population for which the Army, including the Alaska National Guard, may be the best-equipped force to respond. Adequate planning is necessary to ensure the Army remains ready to respond to these challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geographic – Arctic -- The National Security Implications of Climate Change: Redefining Threats, Bolstering Budgets, And Mobilizing The Arctic.  Journal of International Affairs. 2019/2020, Vol. 73 Issue 1, p321-329. 9p. Abstract: The article focuses on the essentiality of consideration of climate change as a threat to national security for the United States. Topics include the changing definition of threats, the failing of the U.S. defense budget to adequately address the costs of climate change, and developing new approaches towards a changing Arctic.

Geography - Arctic –- Evolution Of The International System In The Context Of Climatic Changes In The Arctic. Strategic Impact. 2020, Vol. 75 Issue 2, p89-101. 13p. Abstract:               Current international system faces a new form of risks and threats generated by climate change, the results following the increase of global temperature which managed to influence the the states' conduct. Following this phenomenon, which caused the withdrawal of the polar ice cap, one of the most affected regions is the Arctic area. The changes that have appeared in the region of the polar territories support access to new resources and the emergence of a new maritime route, which have triggered many new implications from many international actors in the development of the area. In the context of the latest evolutions, within the current literature, a new hypothesis began to draw its lines linked to the formation of a regional security complex. Many of the arguments of the hypothesis are linked to the violent actions of Russia to protect and exploit the Arctic theories.

Geography – Arctic -- Human Security in the Arctic: Implications for the United States Army. Parameters: U.S. Army War College. Spring/Summer2019, Vol. 49 Issue 1/2, p37-50. 14p. Abstract:              This article explains the growing importance of Arctic security issues to Army strategic planning. While the effects of climate change will complicate the Army's ability to protect the nation, they will also increase the challenge of securing the population for which the Army, including the Alaska National Guard, may be the best-equipped force to respond. Adequate planning is necessary to ensure the Army remains ready to respond to these challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geography - Arctic -- Risk Representations and Confrontational Actions in the Arctic. Journal of Strategic Security. 2019, Vol. 12 Issue 3, preceding p13-36. 26p. Abstract:              The Arctic is undergoing rapid changes and gaining geopolitical attention. The effects of climate change in the region lead to both potential and hopes for new resources, new or shorter transit routes, and other opportunities. Most Arctic coastal states have come forward with interest articulations. Some coastal states also see their national security and sovereignty at risk. While the region has seen a significant level of cooperation in some areas in the past, current developments seem to motivate both stronger risk representations and confrontational actions. Among the coastal states, particularly Canada, the United States, and Russia express increasing points of contention and articulate risk representations, and they have engaged in military and hard-security activities that make actual conflict more likely. With existing conflicts of interests, a high uncertainty regarding future developments, and even non-Arctic states like China claiming Arctic interests, conflict potential may be on the rise. The article hones in on current developments regarding hard security in the Arctic. The empirical section discusses risk representation, including the role of spatial constructions and national identity, and the confrontational actions already taken. It concludes with implications regarding conflict potential in the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Implications of climate change for the U.S. Army. United States Army War College, [2019] The study itself did not involve original research on the nature or magnitude of climate change. The analysis assumes, based on the preponderance of evidence available, that significant changes in climate have already occurred, likely to worsen in the years ahead. The study did not look to ascribe causation to climate change (man-made or natural), as causation is distinct from effects and not pertinent to the approximately 50-year horizon considered for the study. The study does, however, assume that human behavior can mitigate both the size and consequences of negative impacts that result from climate change.

Energy & Energy Security

Energy -- How the public imagines the energy future: Exploring and clustering non-experts' techno-economic expectations towards the future energy system. PLoS ONE. 3/5/2020, Vol. 14 Issue 3, p1-20. 20p. Abstract: Various countries have pledged to carry out system-wide energy transitions to address climate change. This requires taking strategic decisions with long-term consequences under conditions of considerable uncertainty. For this reason, many actors in the energy sector develop model-based scenarios to guide debates and decision-making about plausible future energy systems. Besides being a decision support instrument for policy-makers, energy scenarios are widely recognized as a way of shaping the expectations of experts and of influencing energy policy more generally. However, relatively little is known about how energy scenarios shape preferences and expectations of the public. We use an explorative research design to assess the publics' expectations of future energy systems through an online survey among Swiss residents (N = 797). We identified four significantly different clusters of people with distinct expectations about the future energy system, each seeing different implications for the acceptability of energy policies and the compatibility with projections of techno-economic energy scenarios. Cluster 1 expects a system-wide energy transition towards renewable energy sources that is similar to the policy-relevant national energy scenario. Cluster 2 also expects an energy transition, but believes it will lead to a range of technical challenges, societal conflicts and controversies with neighboring countries. Cluster 3 is the only cluster not expecting significant changes in the future energy system and thus not anticipating an energy transition. Cluster 4's expectations are between cluster 1 and 2, but it anticipates a huge increase in per capita electricity demand while prices are expected to remain low. The study at hand offers some initial insights into the interdependencies between energy transition pathways outlined in techno-economic energy scenarios and the energy system expectations of the public. These insights are essential for gaining a better understanding of whether and how energy scenarios can contribute to informed public debates about energy futures and how desirable pathways towards them might look like. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy – Military -- Energy Master Planning for Resilient Public Communities--Best Practices from US Military Installations. ASHRAE Transactions. 2020, Vol. 126 Issue 1, p828-848. 21p. Abstract: Until recently, most planners at military installations addressed energy systems for new facilities on an individual facility basis without consideration of community-wide goals relevant to energy sources, renewables, storage, or future energy generation needs. Building retrofits of public buildings typically do not address energy needs beyond the minimum code requirements making it difficult, if not impossible, to achieve community-level targets on a building-by-building basis. Planning on the basis of cost and general reliability may also fail to deliver community-level resilience. For example, many building code requirements focus on hardening to specific threats, but in a multi-building community, only a few of these buildings may be mission-critical. Over the past two decades, the frequency and duration of regional power outages and water utility disruptions from weather, man-made events, and aging infrastructure have increased. Major disruptions of electric and thermal energy have degraded critical mission capabilities and caused significant economic impacts. In 2016, the U.S. Department of Defense issued guidance that each Service (Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines) complete comprehensive energy plans for the installations that consumed 75% of total building energy. Guidance was updated in 2017 to include metrics for energy resilience, and in some cases, water. This paper describes how community level quantitative and qualitative resilience analysis and metrics have been incorporated into community energy and water planning best practices for military installations in three geographically diverse locations. It is based on research performed under the International Energy Agency's "Energy in Buildings and Communities Program Annex 73," focusing on development of guidelines and tools that support the planning of Net Zero Energy Resilient Public Communities as well as research performed under the Department of Defense Environmental Security Technology Certification Program project EW18-D1-5281, "Technologies Integration to Achieve Resilient, Low-Energy Military Installations." The first case study reviews progress made on an energy and water planning study conducted at Fort Bliss, Texas. The second and third describes planning conducted at Fort Bragg, North Carolina and the Joint Region Marianas, Guam, respectively, under the updated guidance from 2017 regarding energy and water resilience. Analysis methods, key metrics, and key infrastructure and operational constraints are described, as well as technical, economic and business concepts used during the planning process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy – Military -- Smart Military Electrical Grids. AARMS: Academic & Applied Research in Military & Public Management Science. 2018, Vol. 17 Issue 1, p53-70. 18p. Abstract:               Today's society is increasingly dependent on electricity and the armed forces also face this problem. In this regards the issue of providing electricity in field conditions when power lines are not available is extremely interesting. The technology of the generators used in the fields has developed only at a minimal level over the past half century while the demand for electricity has multiplied. Logistics becomes more and more difficult and fuel caravans are one of the most vulnerable parts of military actions. Smart grid technologies based on RES2 are no longer a novelty for civil engineering. How are these used in military environments and what are the limits of their application? These are the questions I would like to find some answers to. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy – Military -- What Is The Potential Of Implementing The Energy Management Concept In Military Organisations?     Contemporary Macedonian Defense / Sovremena Makedonska Odbrana. Jun2020, Issue 38, p113-125. 13p. Abstract: The military domain is not an exception in terms of energy demand as well as its dependency on energy and conventional energy sources despite all technological advancements. Nowadays, maintaining high energy resilience in parallel with achieving strategic objectives in the defense sector requires having access to, and exploiting, appropriate knowledge, tools, and techniques to translate the high-level requirements into action at an operational and tactical level. As per the transition towards a more sustainable energy future, a systematic approach for facilitation should be adopted. Through the application of recognized standards such as ISO 50001 Energy Management Systems, Ministries of Defense (MODs) can establish a set of required mechanisms in a structured format that will smooth the transition process. The MODs are the key decision-makers for these organiza-tions and they are the first that need to demonstrate commitment to the process of imple-mentation of the energy management system. To present its commitment and support, the MOD shall define, establish, implement and maintain an energy policy and emphasize the necessity for the reduction of energy consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy – Politics -- Discursive Politics of Energy in EU–Russia Relations: Russia as an "Energy Superpower" and a "Raw-Material Appendage".  Problems of Post-Communism. Jan-Feb2020, Vol. 67 Issue 1, p78-92. 15p. 4 Color Photographs, 2 Charts. Abstract:       Vladimir Putin's regime has struggled to restore Russia's great power status. The discourses that have emerged around Russian energy wealth play a particularly significant role in this struggle and shape Russia's identity in international relations. These multiple and contradictory understandings of energy resources are encapsulated in the two dominant discourses: the energy superpower and the raw-material appendage discourses. This paper examines these discourses and then demonstrates how they shape Russia's energy diplomacy toward the European Union (EU).

Energy – Politics -- Evaluation of the Energy Security As A Component Of National Security of The Country. Journal of Security & Sustainability Issues. Mar2019, Vol. 8 Issue 3, p307-317. 11p. Abstract: The methodical approach to the integrated evaluation of the energy independence of the country and its regions has been improved based on the multidimensional mean, which includes the selection of statistical indicators, the choice of the base of their normalization, the use of the analytic hierarchy process for evaluation of weighting coefficients and the method of aggregation of indicators in the integrated evaluation of energy independence. Using the coverage ratio of consumption with the production of fuel and energy resources, the state of energy dependence has been analyzed for some world countries, which have successes in conducting the energy policy and experience of which should be implemented in the national strategy for the development of the energy complex. The calculation of integral indicators of energy independence for each region will make it possible to determine the "strong" and "weak" regions in the energy sector, identify the reasons of lagging of the most "energy-dependent" areas, and develop appropriate recommendations for improving energy independence for each region.

Energy – Security -- Energy Security Issues In Contemporary Europe. Journal of Security & Sustainability Issues. Mar2018, Vol. 7 Issue 3, p387-398. 12p. Abstract: Throughout the history of mankind, energy security has been always seen as a means of protection from disruptions of essential energy systems. The idea of protection from disorders emerged from the process of securing political and military control over energy resources to set up policies and measures on managing risks that affect all elements of energy systems. The various systems placed in a place to achieve energy security are the driving force towards the energy innovations or emerging trends in the energy sector. Our paper discusses energy security status and innovations in the energy sector in European Union (EU). We analyze the recent up-to-date developments of the energy policy and exploitation of energy sources, as well as scrutinize the channels of energy streaming to the EU countries and the risks associated with this energy import. Moreover, we argue that the shift to the low-carbon production of energy and the massive deployment of renewable energy sources (RES) might become the key issue in ensuring the energy security and independency of the EU from its external energy supplies. Both RES, distributed energy resources (DER) and "green energy" that will be based on the energy efficiency and the shift to the alternative energy supply might change the energy security status quo for the EU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy Security -- Mitigating Risks of Hybrid War Search for an Effective Energy Strategy in The Baltic States. Journal on Baltic Security. 2018, Vol. 4 Issue 2, p23-32. 10p. Abstract:               Meanwhile, energy security is threatened in new domains -- maritime and cyber. In the maritime domain, military operations target construction works of the new objects as well as operating interconnectors, cables, LNG terminals, and other strategic assets. Regular situational awareness in the Baltic Sea region is lacking, as is sufficient naval and civilian maritime cooperation. In the cyber realm attacks become more frequent and more complex, critical infrastructure being the main target. As cyber security expertise and exercise are lacking and integration into European natural gas and electricity systems is not completed, blackout scenario in the Baltic States remains possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy Security -- Resilience for power systems amid a changing climate. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Mar2018, Vol. 74 Issue 2, p95-101. 7p. Abstract:            The US electric power system faces an urgent need for policies that address climate vulnerabilities. Extreme weather events, sea level rise, water availability issues, and changing temperatures can result in acute disruptions to and persistent economic impacts upon electric power generation. In the United States, extreme weather events affecting power systems already cost the country’s economy tens of billions of dollars each year. Policies to improve power systems’ resilience to climate change impacts will produce important co-benefits that apply to other disruptions, such as cyber attacks, earthquakes, and tsunamis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy Security -- The US Military Presence in the Persian Gulf and Its Impact on Energy Security of East Asian Countries (2000-2017). Journal of International & Area Studies. 2019, Vol. 26 Issue 1, p89-112. 24p. Abstract: Maintaining the security of free flow of energy from the Persian Gulf is one of the reasons that America gives for its military presence in this region. The region's trade volume with America, and its allies such as Europe, Japan, and South Korea is high. But the United States is reluctant to allow its allies to expand their respective ties with the region that would reach a similar level with the U.S. position. This is because America's dominance over the Persian Gulf's hydrocarbon resources is among its priorities. Obviously through this dominant status, the U.S. can maintain its dominance over the global economy. Moreover stability of the oil prices is also important to the United States because any rise in oil prices can affect the economy of American allies and consequently spread through the whole industrial world. As it has been stipulated in 2015 American National Security Strategy, undoubtedly ensuring security for free flow of energy from the Persian Gulf to the world will remain among U.S. reasons for its military presence in this region. Given the build up of its military power in the Persian Gulf, its future military presence in this region to dominate the rivals is inevitable. Therefore, despite the Pivot to Asia strategy and the continued importance of Asia-Pacific region, U.S. will remain interested in the Persian Gulf region. We find that this strategy is not in contrast with the result of our study. Here the research question is the impact of American military presence in the Persian Gulf region on the energy security of East Asian countries during the period of our study. American officials claim that the maintaining security of free flow of energy, supporting allies, combating terrorism as well as WMD are among their reasons for their presence in the region, but the main hypothesis of this study is that America is determined to be in control of the region's hydrocarbon resources and keeping international rivals and allies away from them. This research tests this hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Books – Climate Change & National Security Topics

Overdrive Collection - Climate & Environment

-- Towards the Third Revolution in Military Affairs-The Russian Military’s Use of AI-Enabled Cyber Warfare
-- 5G Technology: Improved Capabilities Enable Joint Logistics for the Future Joint Force Article Jun2020 -- The article informs that the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) should invest resources into fifth generation network (5G) to ensure its logistics depots, trusted global supply chain, and joint forces.
-- National Security Implications of Fifth Generation (5G) Mobile Technologies [Updated June 5, 2020] https://www.hsdl.org/?abstract&did=839620
-- Road beyond 5G: A Vision and Insight of the Key Technologies IEEE Article -- As 5G enters a stable phase in terms of system architecture, 3GPP Release 17 starts to investigate advanced features that would shape the evolution toward 6G.
Ultraviolet (UV) Communications -- Of ever-increasing concern for operating a tactical communications network is the possibility that a sophisticated adversary may detect friendly transmissions. Army researchers developed an analysis framework that enables the rigorous study of the detectability of ultraviolet communication systems, providing the insights needed to deliver the requirements of future, more secure Army networks. In particular, ultraviolet communication has unique propagation characteristics that not only allow for a novel non-line-of-sight optical link, but also imply that the transmissions may be harder for an adversary to detect.
-- Ultraviolet communications tech prompts military interest – Jane’s International 1-Oct-2020
-- Noise Reduction on Received Signals in Wireless Ultraviolet Communications Using Wavelet Transform – IEEE July2020
-- Phantom Networks: The Intangible Shoot-and-Scoot Communication Paradigm for Future Militaries – IEEE Feb2020
-- Ultraviolet communication to transform Army networks
-- Ultraviolet Communications: Potential and State-of-the-Art - IEEE May2008
-- High-Performance and High-Capacity Ultraviolet Communication With Orbital Angular Momentum – IEEE 2018
-- Applications of Lasers for Tactical Military Operations – IEEE 2017
-- Analysis of the low-probability-of-detection characteristics of ultraviolet communications – Optics Express Aug2020
--The Fifth Domain: Defending Our Country, Our Companies, and Ourselves In the Age of Cyber Threats (2019) - Richard A. Clarke & Robert K. Knake – RBDigital eBook & eAudiobook & Print Copy
--Killer Apps: War, Media, Machine By Jeremy Packer, Joshua Reeves (Duke University Press, 2020). Ebook Central https://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/tradoc-ebooks/detail.action?docID=6032899
--Russian Cyber Operations : Coding the Boundaries of Conflict – Ebook Central -- Dives into the legal and technical maneuvers of Russian cyber strategies, proposing that nations develop solutions for resilience to withstand future attacks.
--Sandworm: A New Era Of Cyberwar And The Hunt For The Kremlin's Most Dangerous Hackers – RBDigital eBook -- The true story of the most devastating cyberattack in history and the desperate hunt to identify and track the elite Russian agents behind it.
-- Ghost Fleet by P.W. Singer & August Cole --- e-book http://tradochq.rbdigital.com/book/9780544145979 ---- e-audiobook  http://tradochq.rbdigital.com/book/9781490664682
-- Like War by P.W. Singer & Emerson T. Booking --- e-audiobook: http://tradochq.rbdigital.com/book/9781501912627  ---- e-book: http://tradochq.rbdigital.com/book/9781328695758
-- Digital Maginot Line - Autonomous Warfare and Strategic Incoherence. Michael P. Ferguson. PRISM 8, no. 2. Abstract: Almost 80 years later, there could be significant value in exploring two questions. First, what would a Maginot Line look like in the Third Offset era of robotics and autonomous systems (RAS) and militarized artificial intelligence (AI)? Second, and by extension, what is the potential for that line to be blindsided by a modern blitzkrieg?
-- Bots on the ground an impending UGV revolution in military affairs. Ash Rossiter (2020) Small Wars & Insurgencies, 31:4, 851-873. Abstract: By tracing past and present efforts to develop and field UGVs – and the enduring challenges that lie therein – this article attempts to gauge the likely impact of such systems in future conflict, as well as their effect on international security more broadly.
-- Off the Shelf-The Violent Nonstate Actor Drone Threat. Air & Space Power Journal. Fall2020, Vol. 34 Issue 3, p29-43. 15p. Abstract: How small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) enable less capital-rich nations to enter the air domain. Topics discussed include the airpower has historically been scarce for its costs and complexities, commercial UAVs can affordably replace or supplement military-grade models for certain tasks; and the range of actors leveraging airpower's unique attributes is growing in number and variety.
-- Drone Proliferation and the Challenge of Regulating Dual-Use Technologies. Schulzke, Marcus. International Studies Review. Sep2019, Vol. 12 Issue 3, p497-517. 21p.  Abstract: Drones are not confined to the military but rather spread across international and domestic security roles, humanitarian relief efforts, and dozens of civilian applications. Drones, their component technologies, the control infrastructure, and the relevant technical expertise would continue to develop under a military-focused regulatory regime as civilian technologies that have the potential to be militarized. Evaluates the prospects of drone regulation with the help of research on other dual-use technologies, while also showing what the study of drones can contribute to that literature.
-- Squaring Clausewitz’s Trinity in the Age of Autonomous Weapons. Frank G. Hoffman. Foreign Policy Research Institute. Winter 2019. Abstract: The impact in the conduct of war will influence the interactions of policy, populations, and their military forces in ways we are only beginning to consider. Advances in artificial intelligence will introduce a new source of rationalism in war that alters the existing relationship in Clausewitz’s trinity. Decades from now, this new source of rational calculation and genius may well deserve recognition as a new element in war.
-- Applying Control Abstraction to the Design of Human–Agent Teams
-- Building trust over intelligence for autonomous systems
-- Designing AI Systems With Human-Machine Teams
-- How Can Physiological Computing Benefit Human-Robot Interaction
-- Killing Me Softly-Competition in Artificial Intelligence and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles - Norine MacDonald and George Howell. PRISM 8, NO. 3. Abstract: This study of the current range of UAVs, and the ways in which AI can enhance them, offers a specific consideration of the metamorphosis of the battlespace—what one can expect competitors to field, and what sort of response will be required. We do not reference the creation of a general AI but the extensive, consolidated use of narrow AI to integrate, process, and sort the vast amounts of accumulated and incoming data at all levels of the military enterprise. Unmanned systems must be empowered with AI capability to enable swarming, teaming, and sensor interpretation. There must be both reimagining of the conduct of warfare and adding new methodologies for managing and developing these breakthroughs. Both an AI core and AI “nervous system” are needed, with an accompanying integration of systems and networking capacity.
-- The impact of robotics and autonomous systems RAS across the conflict spectrum. Ash Rossiter (2020) Small Wars & Insurgencies, 31:4, 691-700. Abstract: Reflecting the continued importance of lethal UAV usage for international security, this special issue carries several contributions on this topic. But it is perhaps the latent potential of autonomous systems that has stoked greatest interest.
-- Engineering Human–Machine Teams for Trusted Collaboration
-- Artificial Intelligence Drone Swarming and Escalation Risks in Future Warfare. James Johnson (2020). The RUSI Journal, 165:2, 26-36. Abstract: The rapid proliferation of a new generation of artificial intelligence (AI)-augmented and –enabled autonomous weapon systems (AWS), most notably drones used in swarming tactics, could have a significant impact on deterrence, nuclear security, escalation and strategic stability in future warfare. James Johnson argues that emerging iterations of AWS fused with AI systems will presage a powerful interplay of increased range, accuracy, mass, coordination, intelligence and speed in a future conflict. In turn, the risk of escalatory use-them-or-lose-them situations between nuclear-armed military powers and the attendant dangers posed by the use of unreliable, unverified and unsafe AWS will increase, with potentially catastrophic strategic outcomes.
-- Artificial Intelligence Arms Race. Global Policy Volume 10. Issue 3. September 2019 Abstract: The following section uses current events to project the future impacts that increasingly autonomous weapons, if left unchecked, could have on international security. The second section uses all publicly available data to establish and rank the top five world leaders according to their intent to develop autonomous technology, their capacity to develop AWS hardware, and their level of AI expertise. The final section highlights the importance of ongoing efforts to restrict or ban the use of AWS and of setting global norms under international law now by these leading states, before it is too late.
-- Robotics and Military Operations. William G. Braun Prof. SSI, Stéfanie von Hlatky Dr., Kim Richard Nossal Dr. Chapter 2. Current and Emerging Technology in Military Robotics. USAWC Press 5-22-2018. Abstract: Simon Monckton Conference panels considered the implications of robotics on ethical, legal, operational, institutional, and force generation functioning of the Army across three time-horizons (today, tomorrow, and the future). Particularly in Western Army contexts, the integration of these systems has been limited; the most obvious uses having been in force protection—e.g., counter-improvised explosive device (CIED) or intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, and reconnaissance (ISTAR) using unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) functions.
--The Drone Age: How Drone Technology Will Change War And Peace eAudiobook
--Army of None: Autonomous Weapons And The Future Of War eAudiobook & Print Copy
--Burn-In: A novel of the real robotic revolution (Fiction – P.S. Singer & August Cole) eBook & eAudiobook
--Automating army convoys : technical and tactical risks and opportunities (RAND 2020) -- eBook
--Outsourcing War to Machines: the military robotics revolution by Paul J. Springer. 2018 Ebook Central https://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/tradoc-ebooks/detail.action?docID=5255510  Abstract: Military robots are already being used in conflicts around the globe and are affecting both the decision to go to war and the means by which wars are conducted. This book covers the history of military robotics, analyzes their current employment, and examines the ramifications of their future utilization.

------ Private Military and Security Companies (PMSCs) ------
"Peer adversaries will expand the use of Private Military and Security Companies (PMSCs). The US will engage with PMSCs both kinetically and non-kinetically. New rules of engagement will need to be established, as the threat seeks to exploit seams. The use of PMSCs lowers the threshold of violence, but increases risk to U.S. military interventions. We should expect to see PMSCs with expanded capabilities, to include information warfare. PMSCs may drive military technological innovations that challenge/confound the U.S. Army as they respond to local problems in both governed and ungoverned spaces." -- Mad Scientist Blog
2020 - Russian Private Military Companies: Their Use and How to Consider Them in Operations, Competition, and Conflict (Asymmetric Warfare Group & TRADOC G2)
Regulating Private Military and Security Contractors Through Social Accountability (2020): a Comparative Case Analysis Loscher, Katherine R. Webster University, ProQuest Dissertations Publishing, 2020. Private military and security contractors (PMSCs) are a common feature to the modern battlespace. As the market for force and the demand for PMSCs continues to grow, so has the concern amongst scholars and researchers of international relations on how to properly regulate these actors. Despite this concern surrounding the use of private contractors, the lack of an universal legal framework and a solid alternative has allowed for PMSCs to often go unaccountable for transgressions committed during their operations abroad. This research, therefore, focuses on the effects of public opinion and social accountability as a regulatory measure in ensuring PMSCs are held accountable. The public has played an important role in holding their governments accountable and they should be considered an important actor in holding private military and security contractors accountable as well.
Privatization of Security in the 20th Century (2018): From Mercenaries to Private Military Corporations. Goga, Ramona Ioana. Studia Universitatis Babes-Bolyai. Studia Europaea; Cluj-Napoca City Vol. 63, Iss. 1,  (Jul 2018): 251-264. The present paper aims to emphasize the context of the privatization of security in the 20th century and to show the differences between these newly created corporations and the old mercenaries. Moreover, it also highlights the changing the role of mercenaries and their way of action in contemporary peripheries, which erase the idea of what they previously meant and give us a different view regarding their position in the midst of intra-state wars of the period. If in the past centuries the states were contracting mercenaries to take part in hostilities during armed conflicts, whose main motivation was to obtain personal benefits and privileges, now they would rather take into account the private security services. Furthermore, the privatization of violence and the emergence of private military corporations is described, and information is provided on one of the most well-known corporations, namely Blackwater.
Geoeconomic Dimensions of Russian Private Military and Security Companies (2019). Arnold, Thomas D. Military Review; Fort Leavenworth Vol. 99, Iss. 6,  (Nov/Dec 2019): 6-18. The U.S. military's lopsided defeat of Russian mercenaries and pro-regime forces near Deir al-Zour, Syria, in February 2018, brought Russian private military and security companies (PMSCs) to the forefront of popular attention. The subsequent killing of Russian journalists investigating ChVK Wagner--the most notorious Russian PMSC--in the Central African Republic that same year only enhanced the mystique surrounding Russian PMSCs. While these events have increased awareness of Wagner, they have inadvertently focused most analysis of the Russian PMSC industry toward a hybrid, or nonlinear, warfare perspective devoid of historic and economic context. The remainder of this article explores the geoeconomic dimensions of the Russian PMSC industry. It begins by developing an analytical framework based on previous academic theory to facilitate comparative analysis of PMSCs. The article then provides a historical case study to highlight the similarities and dissimilarities between earlier PMSCs and their contemporary Russian counterparts.
Not So Private Military and Security Companies: Wagner Group and Russian Prosecution of Great Power Politics. September 25, 2020 CSIS. Wagner Group is Russia’s best-known private military company (PMC), appearing in conflict zones in Europe, the Middle East, and across Africa. From its origins as one of several Russia-based PMCs offering armed protection, Wagner Group now provides a range of services, including military and paramilitary capabilities, covert media, and political manipulations.
China's Private Military and Security Companies (2020): "Chinese Muscle" and the Reasons for U.S. Engagement. Spearin, Christopher. Prism : a Journal of the Center for Complex Operations; Washington Vol. 8, Iss. 4,  (2020): 41-53. On Feb 7, 2019, General Thomas Waldhauser, then-Commander of US Africa Command, stated the following during a hearing of the US Senate Armed Services Committee: "The Chinese bring the money and the Russians bring the muscle." "Chinese money" is evident in the fact that since 2009, China has been Africa's largest trading partner. Building upon this robust relationship, President Xi Jinping announced in Sep 2018, that USD 60 billion in assistance, loans, and investments would be forthcoming to African recipients. "Russian muscle" in Africa is increasingly evident through Moscow's reliance upon private military and security companies. While it does not dispute the wide-ranging assertions of the Commander about the US' two appointed great power rivals, it contends that US policymakers should also consider Chinese private military and security companies (PMSCs).
Turning the tides of war (2018): The impact of private military and security companies on Nigeria’s counterinsurgency against Boko Haram. Varin, Caroline. African Security Review Volume 27, 2018 - Issue 2. Since the 2003 war in Iraq, private military and security companies (PMSCs) have become increasingly legitimate actors in modern conflicts. Despite this normative shift, rumours in March 2015 regarding the use of South African mercenaries in Nigeria to combat Boko Haram insurgents caused an international outrage, while the Nigerian government remained nonchalantly silent on the matter. This article investigates the impact of mercenaries on the conflict in the last six months of the Jonathan government. Using primary and secondary qualitative research, it assesses the role that PMSCs played in Nigeria’s counterinsurgency strategy, along with the ensuing reaction of international and local media to the outsourcing of violence to foreign companies. The article concludes that – notwithstanding the improved image of PMSCs in the world, and the actual impact of the contractors on the Nigerian counterinsurgency effort – the stigma of mercenaries continues to plague the industry, particularly on the African continent.
Mercenaries 2.0: Twittering for talent Private military and security companies between business and military branding (2018). Contemporary Security Policy Volume 39, 2018 - Issue 2. Private military and security companies (PMSCs) play an increasingly important role in the provision of security-related services. In their attempts to win new clients and find suitable personnel, they take on different identities by presenting themselves as conventional businesses, military actors, and humanitarians. In this article, we examine how PMSCs deploy these identities when they recruit new personnel through social media. Our computer-assisted content analysis of Twitter messages posted by two major United States-based companies—CACI and DynCorp International—shows that while both PMSCs amplify their business and military identities to attract the most talented personnel, they construct and communicate these identities in different ways with CACI branding itself as a sophisticated, modern, and patriotic business and DynCorp as a home-grown, traditional military provider. In addition, our analysis lends force to scholars suggesting that state militaries and the private security sector compete increasingly for prospective employees using similar strategies.
Private military security companies conflict complexity and peace duration (2020): an empirical analysis. Small Wars & Insurgencies Volume 31, 2020 - Issue 7-8. PMSC training has the potential to improve state capacity, reduce the combatants’ opportunity and willingness to fight, and prolong the duration of peace. However, the benefit of PMSC training-related intervention over other types of PMSC interventions depends on the level of conflict complexity. Analysis of novel data on PMSC interventions and peace episodes following major/minor civil wars (1990–2008) shows that in cases when PMSCs intervene, training makes a positive contribution to peace in wars with a limited number of rebel groups that do not resort to terrorism. Positive impact dissipates in conflicts with greater levels of rebel fragmentation and terrorist tactics.
Underlying causes of military outsourcing in the USA and UK (2017) Article: bridging the persistent gap between ends, ways and means since the beginning of the Cold War. Defence Studies Volume 17, 2017 - Issue 2. This article reappraises the two most-studied country cases of military outsourcing: the USA and the UK. It argues that the contemporary wave of military contracting stretches back to the beginning of the cold war and not only to the demobilisation of armies in the 1990s or the neoliberal reforms introduced since the 1980s. It traces the political, technological and ideational developments that laid the groundwork for these reforms and practices since the early cold war and account for its endurance today. Importantly, it argues that a persistent gap between strategic objectives and resources, i.e. the challenge to reconcile ends and means, is an underlying driver of military contracting in both countries. Contemporary contracting is thus most closely tied to military support functions in support of wider foreign and defence political objectives. Security services in either state may not have been outsourced so swiftly, if at all, without decades of experience in outsourcing military logistics functions and the resultant vehicles, processes and familiarities with public-private partnerships. The article thus provides a wider and deeper understanding of the drivers of contractualisation, thereby improving our understanding of both its historical trajectory and the determinants of its present and potential futures.
Russia's Military and Security Privatization (2018). Spearin, Christopher R. Parameters; Carlisle Barracks Vol. 48, Iss. 2,  (Summer 2018): 39. This article discusses the conflicting use of nonstate actors in state-sponsored actions. It also introduces a diplomatic strategy for regulating the application of violence by private  military and security companies.
Proxy Warfare and the Future of Conflict. Andrew Mumford. The contemporary dynamics of proxy warfare will make it a significant feature of the character of conflict in the future. Andrew Mumford identifies four major changes in the nature of modern warfare and argues that they point to a potential increase in the engagement of proxy strategies by states: the decreased public and political appetite in the West for large-scale counter-insurgency ‘quagmires’ against a backdrop of a global recession; the rise in prominence and importance of Private Military Companies (PMCs) to contemporary war-fighting; the increasing use of cyberspace as a platform from which to indirectly wage war; and the ascent of China as a superpower.
War, Business and Ideology: How Russian Private Military Contractors Pursue Moscow’s Interests. (March 20, 2019) Jamestown.  This paper—the first one in a series of publications comprising the project entitled “War by Other Means: Russia’s Use of Private Military Contractors at Home and Abroad”—seeks to provide a general picture of Russian PMCs as a relatively new phenomenon (yet with deep historical roots) that is rapidly changing and being employed in drastically different ways from how such private security firms are utilized in the West. See Also: The Russian State’s Use of Irregular Forces and Private Military Groups: From Ivan the Terrible to the Soviet Period
Mercenaries and War-Understanding Private Armies Today Sean McFate (2019) Mercenaries are more powerful than experts realize, a grave oversight. Those who assume they are cheap imitations of national armed forces invite disaster because for-profit warriors are a wholly different genus and species of fighter. Private military companies such as the Wagner Group are more like heavily armed multinational corporations than the Marine Corps. Their employees are recruited from different countries, and profitability is everything. Patriotism is unimportant, and sometimes a liability. Unsurprisingly, mercenaries do not fight conventionally, and traditional war strategies used against them may backfire.
Russian Private Military Companies-Continuity and Evolution of the Model (2019) Foreign Policy Research Institute. This study reviews the history of semi-state military forces in Russia and explains the unique way the Russian state utilizes PMCs, which is different from how Western governments utilize private contractors. An important aspect of PMCs is that they are officially illegal under Russian law. The study then traces the rise of the PMC model under Putin. It notes that while plausible deniability is a major reason for Moscow to utilize PMCs, it is also linked to other considerations, such as internal rivalries within the Russian government and other domestic reasons. Competition with the West drives the Kremlin’s use of PMCs. Paradoxically, the Russian PMC model demonstrates both state strength and weakness. The study reviews PMCs activities in Ukraine, Syria, and Africa, examines who joins these groups and under what circumstances, and concludes with policy recommendations.
Use and Utility of Russia's Private Military Companies (2019). Keir Giles (Chatham House) Valeriy Akimenko (Conflict Studies Research Centre). Russia’s use of non-state military organisations to provide outsourced expeditionary military forces is currently the focus of intense interest. Internationally, this is because of concern over the potential for abuse of this new element of state power by Russia and the rapid growth in the number of theatres where it has been employed. Since the use of Russian PMCs was reported first in Crimea and east Ukraine, and later more prominently in Syria, the span of their presence has widened considerably, from Libya and a range of African nations to Venezuela. Wagner is also under the spotlight in Russia.
Footprint of Chinese Private Security Companies in Africa (2020). Working Paper No. 2020/35. China Africa Research Initiative, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University. Compared to their American or Russian peers, Chinese private security companies (PSCs) are latecomers to the African security sector and their services are unrelated to the provision of military services or the delivery of military equipment. At present, China’s PSCs are still evolving from local security enterprises operating in low risk environments in Mainland China into international companies able to maneuver abroad in high-risk areas. Africa is the litmus test for Chinese PSCs, with tasks including assets protection   from riots, theft, or terrorism to maritime anti-piracy missions.
Strategic Insights: Five Myths Associated With Employing Private Military Companies (2019). Strategic Studies Institute.
Russian Private Military Companies (PMCs) (2020). Congressional Research Service, In Focus Report.
-- Outsourced Empire : How Militias, Mercenaries, and Contractors Support US Statecraft – Ebook Central
-- Private Military and Security Companies and States : Force Divided – Ebook Central
-- Modern Mercenary : Private Armies and What They Mean for World Order by McFate, Sean – Ebook Central
-- A Symposium – debating ‘surrogate warfare’ and the transformation of war. Andreas Krieg & Jean-Marc Rickli (2018) Defence Studies, 18:2, 113-130. Abstract: Airpower, drones and cyber-weapons are employed by states in conjunction with local armed non-state actors in an effort to coercively intervene in the crises of the twenty-first century. While the externalization of the burden of warfare is a return to pre-modern war, it is the change in the underlying socio-political relations between the state and its military agent that is a novel phenomenon in surrogate warfare. A Symposium debating surrogate warfare and the transformation of war
-- Bipolarity, Proxy Wars, and the Rise of China. Mark O. Yeisley, Lieutenant Colonel, USAF. Scholars debate the likelihood of future war with a rising China, each side arguing whether direct conflict is inevitable. Yet this debate does not consider the most probable future of US-China relations. While direct conflict is indeed a possibility, it remains remote. A more likely outcome is subnational conflict as the United States and China engage in proxy wars over resource access in Africa. These conflicts will place great demands on all US instruments of power as involvement in foreign internal defense, particularly counterinsurgency operations in Africa, trends upward. Bipolarity and renewed proxy conflict will require rethinking of long-term national and military strategies now focused primarily on large-scale interstate wars. This will impact defense acquisition and military doctrine as US strategic focus shifts from conventional conflict to more low-end operations. Bipolarity, Proxy Wars, and the Rise of China
-- Proxy Warfare and the Future of Conflict. Andrew Mumford. The contemporary dynamics of proxy warfare will make it a significant feature of the character of conflict in the future. Andrew Mumford identifies four major changes in the nature of modern warfare and argues that they point to a potential increase in the engagement of proxy strategies by states: the decreased public and political appetite in the West for large-scale counter-insurgency ‘quagmires’ against a backdrop of a global recession; the rise in prominence and importance of Private Military Companies (PMCs) to contemporary war-fighting; the increasing use of cyberspace as a platform from which to indirectly wage war; and the ascent of China as a superpower. Proxy Warfare and the Future of Conflict
-- Proxy Warfare and the Future of Conflict: Take Two. Vladimir Rauta. While proxy wars have been around since time immemorial, the last decade of conflict has seen a rise in their strategic appeal. In the same way that sub-state violence captured the attention of policymakers and academics at the end of the Cold War, proxy wars are now a core feature of the contemporary and future strategic and security environment. Vladimir Rauta argues for a relocation of proxy wars by conceptualising them as strategic bargains waged on more complex grounds than risk avoidance, cost efficiency and deniability. He identifies two types of strategic goals sought through the employment of proxies: coercing and coping with an adversary, the differences of which are presented by contrasting the rationale for the US decision to support Syrian rebels against President Bashar Al-Assad with the Iranian strategy of proxy war in Syria. Proxy Warfare and the Future of Conflict Take Two
-- A conceptualization of the Middle Eastern security structure: Proxy wars of all against all. Alibabalu, Sayyad Sadri; Sadri, Babak; Naseem, Muhammad Yaseen; Ahmadi, Azam. Agathos; Iasi Vol. 11, Iss. 1,  (2020): 425-438. The purpose of the present study is to provide an analytical framework based on the developments in the Middle East in the 2000s. The authors seek to shed light on the endless disputes based on the foreign policy behavior of regional powers including Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia. Therefore, the authors seek to describe the dimensions of their behavior.. Each of these powers has its own geopolitical worldview for the Middle East which causes friction between them. Thus, inspired by Thomas Hobbes, the authors seek to conceptualize the proxy 'war of all against all' in the Middle East. Authors conclude that Religion is the main base for conflicts in the Middle East, while ethnic metaphors are also contributing in it relatively. A_conceptualization_of_the_Mid
-- Proxy Wars: Suppressing Violence through Local Agents edited by Eli Berman and David A. Lake. Ebook Central: https://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/tradoc-ebooks/detail.action?docID=5710016   Abstract: working through local proxies or agents, through what Eli Berman and David A. Lake call a strategy of "indirect control," has always been a central tool of foreign policy. Understanding how countries motivate local allies to act in sometimes costly ways, and when and how that strategy succeeds, is essential to effective foreign policy in today's world. In this splendid collection, Berman and Lake apply a variant of principal-agent theory in which the alignment of interests or objectives between a powerful state and a local proxy is central.
-- Implications of Emerging Technology on Military Human Performance research priorities. Daniel C. Billing, Graham R. Fordy, Karl E. Friedl, Henriette Hasselstrøm. Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport. October 2020. Abstract: Rapid advances and convergence in fields such as robotics, information technology and artificial intelligence will continue to have a revolutionary impact on the battlefield of the future. The disruption associated with these technologies will most acutely be experienced by the human combatant at the tactical level, with increasing cognitive demands associated with the employment and use of new capabilities. New research priorities may include augmented performance of humans-machine teams, enhanced cognitive and immunological resilience based on exercise neurobiology findings, and psychophysiological stress tolerance developed in realistic but safe synthetic training environments. Solving these challenges will require interdisciplinary research teams that have the capacity to work across the physical, digital and biological boundaries whilst collaborating seamlessly with end-users, human combatants. New research methodologies taking full advantage of sensing technologies will be needed to provide rigorous, evidence-based data in real and near-real world environments. Longer term research goals involving biological manipulation will be shaped by moral, legal and ethical considerations and evolving concepts of what it means to be human.
-- Minds at War-China's Pursuit of Military Advantage through Cognitive Science and Biotechnology. Kania, Elsa B. Prism : a Journal of the Center for Complex Operations; Vol. 8, Iss. 3, (Jan 2020): 82-101. Abstract: Today, China possesses a stronger technological foundation for future military power, despite confronting continued challenges in the development of “key and core” technologies, and the PLA is looking to improve its capacity to leverage academic and commercial advancements to enable future military capabilities, including artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and quantum technology.
-- Redefining Neuroweapons-Emerging Capabilities in Neuroscience and Neurotechnology. Defranco, Joseph; Dieuliis, Diane; Giordano, James. Prism : a Journal of the Center for Complex Operations ; Washington  Vol. 8, Iss. 3,  (Jan 2020): 48-63. Abstract: As global conflicts assume increasingly asymmetric and gray zone forms, the ability to employ current and newly developing techniques and tools of neurocognitive science to manipulate human thought and behavior must be viewed as a present and increasing challenge. Ongoing developments in neuroscience and technology (neuroS/T), which trend toward 5- to 10-year trajectories of progression, make the brain sciences valid, viable, and of growing value for operational use in warfare, intelligence, and national security (WINS) applications. Historically, biochemical weapons have included incapacitating or lethal agents such as nerve gas, irritants, vesicants, and paralytics. Numerous examples of such weapons can be drawn from World War I to the present. Various forms of neuroS/T have become available, and radical leveling and emerging developments in the brain sciences fortify and add to this current palette of weaponizable tools.
-- Engineering Human–Machine Teams for Trusted Collaboration
-- Implications of Emerging Technology on Military Human Performance. Daniel C. Billing, Graham R. Fordy, Karl E. Friedl, Henriette Hasselstrøm. Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport. October 2020. Abstract: Rapid advances and convergence in fields such as robotics, information technology and artificial intelligence will continue to have a revolutionary impact on the battlefield of the future. The disruption associated with these technologies will most acutely be experienced by the human combatant at the tactical level, with increasing cognitive demands associated with the employment and use of new capabilities. New research priorities may include augmented performance of humans-machine teams, enhanced cognitive and immunological resilience based on exercise neurobiology findings, and psychophysiological stress tolerance developed in realistic but safe synthetic training environments.
-- Intellectual Edge-A Competitive Advantage for Future War and Strategic Competition
-- Emerging Technologies and the Future of CBRN Terrorism. Gregory D. Koblentz (2020). The Washington Quarterly, 43:2, 177-196. Abstract: This article will provide a brief overview of five of these technologies and discuss the ways in which they could be misused by non-state actors. Despite their fundamental differences, these technologies share seven characteristics that make them particularly worrisome. These seven characteristics are key to understanding the factors driving advances in science and technology, the likely trajectory of these emerging technologies, their assimilation by different segments of society, and the impact that these technologies can have on the risks posed by the proliferation of CBRN weapons to non-state actors. The article concludes with recommendations for how to strengthen international efforts to prevent the misuse of these emerging technologies by non-state actors.
-- Future Trends in Synthetic Biology - A Report. Meriem El Karoui, Monica Hoyos-Flight and Liz Fletcher.  Frontiers in Bioengineering and Biotechnology (1 August 2019) Volume 7. Abstract: Leading researchers working on synthetic biology and its applications gathered at the University of Edinburgh in May 2018 to discuss the latest challenges and opportunities in the field. In addition to the potential socio-economic benefits of synthetic biology, they also examined the ethics and security risks arising from the development of these technologies. Speakers from industry, academia and not-for-profit organizations presented their vision for the future of the field and provided guidance to funding and regulatory bodies to ensure that synthetic biology research is carried out responsibly and can realize its full potential.
-- Security Implications of Synthetic Biology. Gronvall, Gigi. Source: Survival. Aug2018, Vol. 60 Issue 4, p165-180. 16p.  Abstract: Advances in synthetic biology hold great promise, but to minimise security threats, national and international regulation will need to keep pace.      
-- Cyborg Soldier 2050: Human/Machine Fusion and the Implications for the Future of the DOD (Sep 2018–Aug 2019). CCDC CBC-TR-1599, DoD Biotechnologies for Health and Human Performance Council (BHPC; Alexandria, VA) Abstract: The primary objective of this effort was to forecast and evaluate the military implications of machines that are physically integrated with the human body to augment and enhance human performance over the next 30 years. This report summarizes this assessment and findings; identifies four potential military-use cases for new technologies in this area; and assesses their impact upon the DOD organizational structure, warfighter doctrine and tactics, and interoperability with U.S. allies and civil society. https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/mad-scientist/m/articles-of-interest/300458/download
--The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology eAudiobook & eBook
--Biodefense in the Age of Synthetic Biology. Engineering, and Medicine National Academies of Sciences, Division on Earth and Life Studies, Board on Life Sciences, Board on Chemical Sciences and Technology, and Committee on Strategies for Identifying and Addressing Potential Biodefense Vulnerabilities Posed by Synthetic Biology. Ebook Central
--The Molecule of More: How A Single Chemical In Your Brain Drives Love, Sex, And Creativity--And Will Determine The Fate Of The Human Race eBook

--Homo Deus: A Brief History Of Tomorrow by Yuval Noah Harari RBdigital eBook

--Head Strong : How Psychology Is Revolutionizing War, Revised and Expanded Edition (2020) – Ebook Central – Explores the many ways that psychology will make the difference for wars yet to come, from revolutionary advances in soldier selection and training to new ways of preparing soldiers to remain resilient in the face of horror and to engineering the super-soldier of the future.
-- Playing Head Games Is More Crucial Than Ever (Army Magazine) – Article -- The article offers information on the need for U.S. military to consider achieving cognitive superiority. Topics discussed include winning war through intelligence, information and deception; national security implications of the cognitive domain; and achieving cognitive superiority for public policy related to education.
-- The rhythm of struggle; Disinformation and democracy (The Economist)Article -- IN HIS ANNUAL lecture in December, General Sir Nick Carter, Britain's chief of defence staff, warned that "the idea of political warfare has returned". Tanks and jets still mattered, he assured a bemedalled audience, but authoritarian rivals were unpicking the seams of society and politics in the West using disinformation, espionage, assassinations, cyber-attacks and proxies.
-- Making Cyberspace Safe for Democracy: The New Landscape of Information Competition (Foreign Affairs)ArticleIt mentions surveillance, censorship, and the manipulation of information, authoritarian regimes shore up their power at home while weakening democratic competitors abroad. It also mentions Russia's hacking operations and use of social media to manipulate public discourse in the U.S. caught U.S. policymakers off-guard and Russian interference in presidential elections of the U.S.
-- Army Mad Scientist Podcast: 244. The Convergence: True Lies – The Fight Against Disinformation with Cindy Otis – Podcast -- *Copies of her book "True or False" are available in physical & digital formats.
-- American News Habits and the Challenge of Truth Decay. March 4, 2020
--- Truth Decay See Also: Truth Decay in the Coronavirus Moment: Q&A with Jennifer Kavanagh
----- More on Media Literacy
-- Detecting Malign or Subversive Information Efforts over Social Media
-- Weaponised Deep Fakes: National Security and Democracy. Australian Strategic Policy Institute.
True or False: A CIA Analyst's Guide To Spotting Fake News - Cindy L. Otis – RBDigital eBook & eAudiobook - Takes listeners through the history and impact of misinformation, then shares lessons learned in over a decade working for the CIA, including actionable tips on how to spot fake news, how to make sense of the information we receive each day, and, perhaps most importantly, how to understand and see past our own information biases.
Active Measures: The Secret History Of Disinformation and Political Warfare by Thomas Rid -- eBook -- eAudiobook -- (print & audioCD available for contact-less pickup) This revelatory and dramatic history of disinformation traces the rise of secret organized deception operations from the interwar period to contemporary internet troll farms We live in the age of disinformation—of organized deception. Spy agencies pour vast resources into hacking, leaking, and forging data, often with the goal of weakening the very foundation of liberal democracy: trust in facts.
Warring Songs: Information Operations in the Digital Age https://www.hsdl.org/?abstract&did=839518  Demos (Organization: London, England)
Global data shock : strategic ambiguity, deception, and surprise in an age of information overload (print available for contact-less pickup) -- A sweeping array of case studies illustrates the role of data shock in shaping global events from the 1990 Iraqi attack on Kuwait to Brexit. Too much information can lead to foreign intelligence failures, security policy incoherence, mass public frustrations, curtailment of democratic freedoms, and even international political anarchy.
LikeWar: The Weaponization Of Social Media by P.W. Singer & Emerson Brooking (2019) eBook eAudio (print & audioCD available for contact-less pickup) Two defense experts explore the collision of war, politics, and social media, where the most important battles are now only a click away.
Recommended sites for information evaluation:
Snopes.com
Poynter institute
Politifact.com
Factcheck.org
Hoax-slayer.com
Internet archive wayback machine
Space Force is in Danger of Becoming Half the Service it Needs to Be--Congress Must Continue Its Robust Support https://www.hsdl.org/?abstract&did=839668  Heritage Foundation (Washington, D.C.)
Critical Infrastructure -- Future Warfare: Weaponizing Critical Infrastructure. Evans, Carol. Parameters ; Carlisle Barracks  Vol. 50, Iss. 2,  (Summer 2020): 35-42. Abstract: Adversaries are actively targeting US and NATO critical infrastructure, particularly energy, transportation, information, communications, and the defense industrial base sectors to undermine military capability, readiness, and force projection. In some cases, adversaries are penetrating the critical infrastructure of the United States and our allies to identify vulnerabilities for later exploitation, and in others critical infrastructure is being weaponized by Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea as a form of hybrid warfare. Future Warfare-Weaponizing Critical Infrastructure
Geographic – Climate Change -- Changes in the Arctic: Background and Issues for Congress. 9/10/2020, 141p. Abstract: It mentions that U.S. Dept. of Defense and the Coast Guard are devoting increased attention to the Arctic in their operations; and increased oil and gas exploration and tourism in Arctic increase risk of pollution in the region. Changes in the Arctic-Background and Issues for Congress
-- The Senkaku Paradox : Risking Great Power War Over Small Stakes by Michael E. O'Hanlon  Ebook Central: https://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/tradoc-ebooks/detail.action?docID=5481260
Nanotechnology --The threats from nanotechnology. Kosal, Margaret E. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Nov2019, Vol. 75 Issue 6, p290-294. 5p.  Abstract: Research in nanotechnology may have an important positive impact on the world. For instance, inventors have developed ways to control very small volumes of water to create low-cost scientific instruments for the developing world. But at the same time, nanotechnology carries risks. Cheap scientific tools could be used by terrorist groups. Militaries could develop destabilizing stealth technology. While there's plenty of reason to be optimistic about the future of nanotechnology, policymakers should also consider its risks. threats from nanotechnology
-- Nanoweapons. Louis A. Del Monte. 2017 Ebook Central https://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/tradoc-ebooks/detail.action?docID=4812450 Abstract:  Describes the most deadly generation of military weapons the world has ever encountered. With dimensions one-thousandth the diameter of a single strand of human hair, this technology threatens to eradicate humanity as it incites world governments to compete in the deadliest arms race ever.
Personnel - Reflections on the Future of Warfare and Implications for Personnel Policies of the U.S. Department of Defense. John D. Winkler, Timothy Marler, Marek N. Posard, Raphael S. Cohen, and Meagan L. Smith. RAND, 2019. Abstract: The consensus among this group is that the face of warfare is changing, as evidenced by both changes in battlefield doctrine and practice of U.S. adversaries and in the rapidly evolving development of advanced warfighting technologies. The issue is to determine the role of the human as advanced warfighting technologies develop and how policies for managing defense human resources should change to provide personnel with the necessary capabilities to operate with these technologies in this new environment. Reflections on the Future of Warfare and Implications for Personnel Policies
Power to the People : How Open Technological Innovation Is Arming Tomorrow's Terrorists By: Audrey Kurth Cronin. New York, NY : Oxford University Press. 2020. Ebook Central https://ebookcentral.proquest.com/lib/tradoc-ebooks/detail.action?docID=5899290  Abstract: Never have so many possessed the means to be so lethal. The diffusion of modern technology (robotics, cyber weapons, 3-D printing, autonomous systems, and artificial intelligence) to ordinary people has given them access to weapons of mass violence previously monopolized by the state. In recent years, states have attempted to stem the flow of such weapons to individuals and non-state groups, but their efforts are failing
These resources are intended as overviews of relevant discussion and do not represent endorsement by TRADOC.